Chargers vs Jets — Week 16, 2017
The Chargers took over leading 14-7 with 3:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 14, Jets 7. Chargers won 14-7 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 17, 3:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.8% for Chargers. Our model starts at 93.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:07) (Shotgun) 28-M.Gordon left guard to LAC 19 for 2 yards (75-X.Cooper; 58-D.Lee).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep right to 16-Ty.Williams.
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 13-K.Allen to LAC 39 for 20 yards (26-M.Maye).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 32-B.Oliver up the middle to LAC 42 for 3 yards (99-S.McLendon).
- (1:53) 32-B.Oliver left guard to 50 for 3 yards (56-D.Davis).
- (1:11) 32-B.Oliver up the middle to LAC 47 for -3 yards (95-J.Martin).
- (1:02) 32-B.Oliver right end to LAC 48 for 1 yard (98-M.Pennel).
- (:20) 32-B.Oliver up the middle to LAC 48 for no gain (95-J.Martin; 99-S.McLendon).
- (:15) 8-D.Kaser punts 40 yards to NYJ 12, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-J.Natson to NYJ 5 for -7 yards (34-D.Watt).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.32 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Inside run | -0.67 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.75 pts |
| Quick out | -1.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.19 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.21 pts |
| QB keep | -1.41 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.44 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| Play action | -2.81 pts |
| Curl route | -3.13 pts |
| End-around | -5.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.17 pts |
| Deep post | -8.78 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.99 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.