Raiders vs Broncos — Week 12, 2017
The Raiders took over leading 21-14 with 2:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 21, Broncos 14. Raiders won 21-14 — the drive time expired.
Raiders ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 13, 2:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 93.8% for Raiders. Our model starts at 94.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch left end to LV 10 for -3 yards (26-D.Stewart).
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 24-M.Lynch up the middle to LV 15 for 5 yards (92-Z.Kerr).
- (2:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 84-C.Patterson to DEN 31 for 54 yards (25-C.Harris).
- (2:00) 4-D.Carr kneels to DEN 32 for -1 yards.
- (1:19) 4-D.Carr kneels to DEN 33 for -1 yards.
- (:35) 4-D.Carr kneels to DEN 34 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.25 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.25 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.74 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.99 pts |
| Quick out | -1.40 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.41 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.62 pts |
| QB keep | -1.69 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Play action | -3.01 pts |
| Curl route | -3.36 pts |
| End-around | -5.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.43 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.34 pts |
| Deep post | -8.95 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.18 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.