Colts vs Browns — Week 3, 2017
The Colts took over leading 31-28 with 2:03 left, 1st & 10 at the Browns 45, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Colts 31, Browns 28. Colts won 31-28 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. Near midfield, 2:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.9% for Colts. Our model starts at 88.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:03) (Run formation) 23-F.Gore up the middle to CLE 45 for no gain (26-D.Kindred).
- (1:58) (Run formation) 23-F.Gore up the middle to CLE 46 for -1 yards (55-D.Shelton).
- (1:15) (Run formation) 23-F.Gore right guard to CLE 45 for 1 yard (22-J.Peppers).
- (:29) 2-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to CLE 9, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.40 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.40 pts |
| Outside run | +0.01 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick out | -0.60 pts |
| QB keep | -0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.66 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.32 pts |
| Play action | -2.07 pts |
| Curl route | -2.19 pts |
| End-around | -4.50 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.57 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.38 pts |
| Deep post | -7.74 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.12 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.