Raiders vs Titans — Week 1, 2017
The Raiders took over leading 23-16 with 4:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 26, Titans 16. Raiders won 26-16 — the drive scored.
Raiders ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 41, 4:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.5% for Raiders. Our model starts at 92.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:41) 24-M.Lynch up the middle to LV 45 for 4 yards (59-W.Woodyard; 90-D.Jones).
- (3:55) 24-M.Lynch left tackle to LV 48 for 3 yards (54-A.Williamson; 90-D.Jones).
- (3:17) 30-J.Richard right end to TEN 45 for 7 yards (54-A.Williamson).
- (3:05) 30-J.Richard left tackle to TEN 36 for 9 yards (94-A.Johnson; 21-D.Searcy).
- (2:58) 24-M.Lynch right tackle to TEN 31 for 5 yards (54-A.Williamson).
- (2:52) 24-M.Lynch left guard to TEN 29 for 2 yards (31-K.Byard).
- (2:06) 24-M.Lynch right tackle to TEN 23 for 6 yards (21-D.Searcy).
- (2:00) 24-M.Lynch right tackle to TEN 25 for -2 yards (91-D.Morgan).
- (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 2-G.Tavecchio 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.29 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.29 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.65 pts |
| Quick out | -1.05 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.11 pts |
| QB keep | -1.26 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Play action | -2.72 pts |
| Curl route | -3.03 pts |
| End-around | -4.99 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.22 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.08 pts |
| Deep post | -8.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.