Chiefs vs Chargers — Week 3, 2017
The Chiefs took over leading 17-10 with 3:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 24, Chargers 10. Chiefs won 24-10 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 20, 3:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.5% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 92.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:05) 27-K.Hunt right end to KC 24 for 4 yards (26-C.Hayward).
- (2:21) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to KC 29 for 5 yards (54-M.Ingram, 93-D.Philon).
- (2:14) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 31 for 2 yards (56-K.Toomer, 99-J.Bosa).
- (2:00) 27-K.Hunt right guard for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.38 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.77 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.38 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.53 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.55 pts |
| Quick out | -0.97 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.04 pts |
| QB keep | -1.19 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Play action | -2.65 pts |
| Curl route | -2.95 pts |
| End-around | -4.98 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.17 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.05 pts |
| Deep post | -8.67 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.86 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.77 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.