49ers vs Jaguars — Week 16, 2017
The 49ers took over leading 37-33 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 49, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jaguars.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 44, Jaguars 33. 49ers won 44-33 — the drive scored.
49ers ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.7% for 49ers. Our model starts at 91.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) 28-C.Hyde up the middle to JAX 47 for 4 yards (50-T.Smith, 51-P.Posluszny). PENALTY on JAX-97-M.Jackson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 47.
- (1:43) 28-C.Hyde up the middle to JAX 33 for 4 yards (91-Y.Ngakoue).
- (1:38) 28-C.Hyde up the middle to JAX 30 for 3 yards (93-C.Campbell).
- (1:31) 22-M.Breida left end for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.31 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.31 pts |
| Outside run | -0.11 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.45 pts |
| Quick out | -0.75 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.80 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.86 pts |
| QB keep | -0.89 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Play action | -2.33 pts |
| Curl route | -2.54 pts |
| End-around | -4.74 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.85 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.70 pts |
| Deep post | -8.21 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.49 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.