Chiefs vs Patriots — Week 1, 2017
The Chiefs took over leading 35-27 with 4:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 42, Patriots 27. Chiefs won 42-27 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 21, 4:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.9% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 92.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:15) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt left end pushed ob at NE 21 for 58 yards (32-D.McCourty).
- (4:05) 35-C.West right guard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.23 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.84 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.23 pts |
| Outside run | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.59 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.66 pts |
| Quick out | -1.06 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.09 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.13 pts |
| QB keep | -1.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.40 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.54 pts |
| Play action | -2.76 pts |
| Curl route | -3.08 pts |
| End-around | -5.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.14 pts |
| Deep post | -8.77 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.94 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.84 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.