Titans vs Colts — Week 6, 2017
The Titans took over leading 29-22 with 2:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 13, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Titans 36, Colts 22. Titans won 36-22 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 13, 2:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.4% for Titans. Our model starts at 94.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:19) 22-D.Henry up the middle to TEN 15 for 2 yards (95-J.Hankins).
- (2:00) 22-D.Henry left guard to TEN 23 for 8 yards (32-T.Green).
- (1:53) 22-D.Henry left tackle to TEN 24 for 1 yard (92-M.Hunt).
- (1:47) 22-D.Henry left tackle to TEN 28 for 4 yards (21-V.Davis; 51-J.Simon).
- (1:01) 22-D.Henry left end for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.13 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.13 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.00 pts |
| Quick out | -1.40 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.41 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.65 pts |
| QB keep | -1.71 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Play action | -3.05 pts |
| Curl route | -3.42 pts |
| End-around | -5.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.40 pts |
| Deep post | -9.06 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.