Steelers vs Chiefs — Week 6, 2017
The Steelers took over leading 19-13 with 2:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 19, Chiefs 13. Steelers won 19-13 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 24, 2:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 94.8% for Steelers. Our model starts at 93.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:15) 26-L.Bell up the middle to PIT 22 for -2 yards (97-A.Bailey).
- (2:10) 26-L.Bell left end to PIT 26 for 4 yards (49-D.Sorensen).
- (2:05) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 26-L.Bell (21-E.Murray) [95-C.Jones].
- (1:59) 4-J.Berry punts 62 yards to KC 12, Center-57-K.Canaday. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 44 for 32 yards (44-T.Matakevich; 45-R.Nix).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.21 pts |
| Outside run | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| Quick out | -0.92 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.96 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.00 pts |
| QB keep | -1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Play action | -2.60 pts |
| Curl route | -2.88 pts |
| End-around | -4.97 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.00 pts |
| Deep post | -8.62 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.