Ravens vs Colts — Week 16, 2017
The Ravens took over leading 23-16 with 4:33 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 23, Colts 16. Ravens won 23-16 — the drive turned it over.
Ravens ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 4:33 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.4% for Ravens. Our model starts at 90.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:33) 34-A.Collins right guard to BAL 27 for 2 yards (44-A.Morrison).
- (4:28) 5-J.Flacco pass short middle to 17-M.Wallace to BAL 41 for 14 yards (32-T.Green).
- (4:17) 34-A.Collins left guard to BAL 42 for 1 yard (93-J.Sheard).
- (3:36) 37-J.Allen right guard to BAL 46 for 4 yards (44-A.Morrison; 41-M.Farley).
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass incomplete short middle to 17-M.Wallace (42-K.Moore II).
- (2:45) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punt is BLOCKED by 50-A.Walker, Center-46-M.Cox, RECOVERED by IND-58-T.Basham at BAL 27. 58-T.Basham to BAL 27 for no gain (37-J.Allen).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.55 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.28 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.48 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick out | -0.99 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.07 pts |
| QB keep | -1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Play action | -2.62 pts |
| Curl route | -2.88 pts |
| End-around | -4.89 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.95 pts |
| Deep post | -8.46 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.69 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.55 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.