Patriots vs Jets — Week 6, 2017
The Patriots took over leading 24-17 with 3:34 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 24, Jets 17. Patriots won 24-17 — the drive turned it over.
Patriots ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 17, 3:34 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.3% for Patriots. Our model starts at 91.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:34) 35-M.Gillislee right tackle to NE 17 for no gain (99-S.McLendon).
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White to NE 20 for 3 yards (96-M.Wilkerson).
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Amendola.
- (2:05) 6-R.Allen punts 48 yards to NYJ 37, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Kerley to NYJ 37 for no gain (49-J.Cardona). PENALTY on NYJ-38-X.Coleman, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 37.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.71 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.72 pts |
| Quick out | -1.14 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.17 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.35 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.39 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.59 pts |
| Play action | -2.74 pts |
| Curl route | -3.03 pts |
| End-around | -5.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.20 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.07 pts |
| Deep post | -8.61 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.71 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.