Packers vs Bears — Week 10, 2017
The Packers took over leading 23-16 with 3:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Packers 23, Bears 16. Packers won 23-16 — the drive missed field goal.
Packers ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 3:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 92.2% for Packers. Our model starts at 92.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:19) 30-J.Williams left end pushed ob at GB 31 for 6 yards (38-A.Amos).
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 30-J.Williams right tackle to GB 35 for 4 yards (39-E.Jackson).
- (2:26) 30-J.Williams right end to GB 38 for 3 yards (38-A.Amos).
- (2:17) 22-A.Ripkowski right tackle to GB 40 for 2 yards (96-A.Hicks).
- (2:12) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass deep right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at CHI 23 for 42 yards (23-K.Fuller).
- (2:04) 30-J.Williams left guard to CHI 24 for -1 yards (96-A.Hicks).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 30-J.Williams right tackle to CHI 20 for 4 yards (39-E.Jackson).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 18-R.Cobb. 18-R.Cobb left end to CHI 17 for 3 yards (52-C.Jones).
- (1:07) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-54-D.Hart, Holder-8-J.Vogel.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.33 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.51 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.55 pts |
| Quick out | -0.96 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.00 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.03 pts |
| QB keep | -1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Play action | -2.64 pts |
| Curl route | -2.93 pts |
| End-around | -4.95 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.15 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.03 pts |
| Deep post | -8.63 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.