Lions vs Bengals — Week 16, 2017
The Lions took over trailing 19-17 with 4:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Lions 17, Bengals 26. Bengals won 26-17 — the drive turned it over.
Lions ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 4:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 38.8% for Lions. Our model starts at 40.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:42) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 15-G.Tate to DET 22 for -3 yards (21-D.Dennard) [97-G.Atkins].
- (4:04) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short middle to 15-G.Tate.
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete deep right to 15-G.Tate (26-J.Shaw, 27-D.Kirkpatrick).
- (3:49) 6-S.Martin punts 33 yards to DET 40, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.92 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.92 pts |
| QB keep | +0.79 pts |
| Curl route | +0.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.72 pts |
| Quick out | +0.24 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Play action | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.16 pts |
| Outside run | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.70 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.23 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.45 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.50 pts |
| Deep post | -1.52 pts |
| End-around | -2.18 pts |
| Spike it | -2.86 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.