Titans vs 49ers — Week 15, 2017
The Titans took over trailing 22-20 with 3:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Titans 23, 49ers 25. 49ers won 25-23 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 3:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 36.1% for Titans. Our model starts at 37.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:08) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 84-C.Davis pushed ob at TEN 38 for 13 yards (23-A.Witherspoon). Caught at TEN 35. 3-YAC
- (3:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 82-D.Walker (99-D.Buckner).
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 87-E.Decker to TEN 47 for 9 yards (36-D.Johnson). SF-56-R.Foster was injured during the play. Caught at TEN 47. 0-YAC Officials measured for the 1st down, short - 4th down.
- (2:34) 8-M.Mariota up the middle to TEN 49 for 2 yards (90-E.Mitchell).
- (2:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-D.Murray right guard to SF 48 for 3 yards (99-D.Buckner, 35-E.Reid).
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 82-D.Walker pushed ob at SF 40 for 8 yards (56-R.Foster). Caught at SF 46. 6-YAC
- (1:55) 29-D.Murray left end to SF 39 for 1 yard (56-R.Foster).
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short right to 82-D.Walker ran ob at SF 32 for 7 yards (23-A.Witherspoon). Caught at SF 37. 5-YAC
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 29-D.Murray up the middle to SF 32 for no gain (99-D.Buckner).
- (1:12) 4-R.Succop 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.79 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.57 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.40 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.32 pts |
| QB keep | +1.25 pts |
| Play action | +0.67 pts |
| Quick out | +0.62 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.49 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.27 pts |
| Deep post | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.11 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| End-around | -1.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.19 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.65 pts |
| Spike it | -2.79 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.