Jaguars vs Chargers — Week 10, 2017
The Jaguars took over trailing 17-14 with 2:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 29, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chargers.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 17, Chargers 17. Tied 17-17 — the drive turnover.
Jaguars ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 29, 2:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 37.3% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 32.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short middle to 33-C.Ivory.
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 84-K.Cole to JAX 41 for 12 yards (20-D.King).
- (2:11) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right to 88-A.Hurns to JAX 47 for 6 yards (37-J.Addae).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short right intended for 88-A.Hurns INTERCEPTED by 33-T.Boston (26-C.Hayward) at LAC 42. 33-T.Boston to LAC 42 for no gain (88-A.Hurns).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.82 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.65 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.82 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.46 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.46 pts |
| QB keep | +1.30 pts |
| Play action | +0.84 pts |
| Quick out | +0.68 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.55 pts |
| Deep post | +0.33 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.20 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.23 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.30 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.69 pts |
| End-around | -1.83 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.97 pts |
| Spike it | -2.65 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.