Titans vs Bengals — Week 10, 2017
The Titans took over trailing 20-17 with 4:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 27, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Titans 24, Bengals 20. Titans won 24-20 — the drive scored.
Titans ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 27, 4:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 39.5% for Titans. Our model starts at 34.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:57) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 81-J.Smith to TEN 35 for 8 yards (57-V.Rey).
- (4:19) 22-D.Henry right tackle to TEN 40 for 5 yards (57-V.Rey).
- (3:38) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short right to 22-D.Henry [96-C.Dunlap].
- (3:32) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 87-E.Decker to 50 for 10 yards (59-N.Vigil).
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass deep middle to 82-D.Walker to CIN 30 for 20 yards (21-D.Dennard).
- (2:21) 22-D.Henry left guard to CIN 25 for 5 yards (57-V.Rey).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep middle to 18-R.Matthews (43-G.Iloka).
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 82-D.Walker to CIN 12 for 8 yards (42-C.Fejedelem; 43-G.Iloka).
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota scrambles left end to CIN 7 for 5 yards (96-C.Dunlap).
- (:50) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 82-D.Walker (59-N.Vigil). TEN-82-D.Walker was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
- (:46) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass incomplete short middle to 87-E.Decker [58-C.Lawson].
- (:42) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 29-D.Murray for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-C.Lawson].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.86 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.86 pts |
| Curl route | +0.83 pts |
| QB keep | +0.75 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.71 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Play action | +0.14 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.16 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.65 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.97 pts |
| Deep post | -1.04 pts |
| Inside run | -1.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| End-around | -1.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.48 pts |
| Spike it | -2.68 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.