49ers vs Cardinals — Week 4, 2017
The 49ers took over tied at 12 with 4:14 left, 1st & 10 at their own 5, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 12, Cardinals 12. Tied 12-12 — the drive turned it over.
49ers ball, even score — any score wins it. Backed up at their own 5, 4:14 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.6% for 49ers. Our model starts at 53.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:14) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short left to 19-A.Robinson.
- (4:04) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short right to 15-P.Garcon.
- (4:00) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short left to 28-C.Hyde to SF 4 for 1 yard (55-C.Jones). Penalty on SF-67-D.Kilgore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
- (3:52) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to ARI 45, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 21-P.Peterson.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.62 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.83 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.62 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.63 pts |
| Outside run | -1.69 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.77 pts |
| Quick out | -1.82 pts |
| QB keep | -1.82 pts |
| Inside run | -1.88 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.88 pts |
| Screen pass | -2.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.46 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Curl route | -3.01 pts |
| Play action | -3.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.11 pts |
| End-around | -4.40 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.54 pts |
| Deep post | -4.73 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.39 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.83 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.