Browns vs Titans — Week 7, 2017
The Browns took over trailing 9-6 with 4:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 33, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Titans.
What really happened
Final: Browns 9, Titans 9. Tied 9-9 — the drive scored.
Browns ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 33, 4:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.7% for Browns. Our model starts at 36.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:17) 29-D.Johnson left guard to CLE 35 for 2 yards (90-D.Jones).
- (3:43) 29-D.Johnson left guard to CLE 45 for 10 yards (59-W.Woodyard).
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler sacked at CLE 40 for -5 yards (91-D.Morgan).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short left to 34-I.Crowell to CLE 48 for 8 yards (55-J.Brown).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass incomplete short right to 87-S.DeValve.
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short middle to 29-D.Johnson to TEN 38 for 14 yards (59-W.Woodyard) [98-B.Orakpo].
- (1:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 29-D.Johnson left guard to TEN 38 for no gain (55-J.Brown; 97-K.Klug).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 34-I.Crowell to TEN 36 for 2 yards (25-A.Jackson).
- (:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass short right to 34-I.Crowell to TEN 27 for 9 yards (55-J.Brown; 31-K.Byard). The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-C.Kessler pass incomplete short right to 34-I.Crowell.
- (:51) 5-Z.Gonzalez 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.11 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-2.94 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.11 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.08 pts |
| QB keep | +0.95 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.95 pts |
| Quick out | +0.38 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.26 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Outside run | -0.37 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.82 pts |
| Deep post | -0.83 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.99 pts |
| Inside run | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| End-around | -1.98 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.44 pts |
| Spike it | -2.76 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.94 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.