Eagles vs Giants — Week 3, 2017
The Eagles took over trailing 24-21 with 3:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 27, Giants 24. Eagles won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Eagles ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 25, 3:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 35.8% for Eagles. Our model starts at 32.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:08) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 28-W.Smallwood pushed ob at PHI 34 for 9 yards (52-J.Casillas).
- (3:02) (Shotgun) 28-W.Smallwood left end pushed ob at NYG 46 for 20 yards (27-D.Thompson).
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 28-W.Smallwood right tackle to NYG 37 for 9 yards (52-J.Casillas).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 29-L.Blount up the middle to NYG 31 for 6 yards (57-K.Robinson).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short middle to 86-Z.Ertz to NYG 34 for 12 yards (57-K.Robinson).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to NYG 28 for 6 yards (57-K.Robinson).
- (1:01) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass incomplete short right to 17-A.Jeffery.
- (:56) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.61 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.61 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.31 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.29 pts |
| QB keep | +1.16 pts |
| Play action | +0.69 pts |
| Quick out | +0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.46 pts |
| Deep post | +0.14 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.24 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Outside run | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.27 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.76 pts |
| End-around | -1.82 pts |
| Flea flicker | -2.05 pts |
| Spike it | -2.61 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.