Chargers vs Broncos — Week 1, 2017
The Chargers took over trailing 24-21 with 4:07 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 21, Broncos 24. Broncos won 24-21 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 40, 4:07 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.9% for Chargers. Our model starts at 38.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:07) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 16-Ty.Williams ran ob at 50 for 10 yards.
- (4:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 16-Ty.Williams (29-B.Roby).
- (3:56) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass incomplete deep left to 12-T.Benjamin.
- (3:49) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 49 for -1 yards (54-B.Marshall).
- (3:15) 8-D.Kaser punts 36 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-51-K.Emanuel.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.19 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.03 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.19 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.16 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.03 pts |
| QB keep | +1.03 pts |
| Quick out | +0.44 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.32 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.01 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.82 pts |
| Deep post | -0.86 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.00 pts |
| Inside run | -1.06 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| End-around | -1.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.80 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.03 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.