Commanders vs Eagles — Week 1, 2017
The Commanders took over trailing 22-17 with 1:59 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 17, Eagles 30. Eagles won 30-17 — the drive turnover.
Commanders ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 1:59 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 23.1% for Commanders. Our model starts at 15.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:59) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 86-J.Reed to WAS 32 for 7 yards (58-J.Hicks).
- (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at WAS 24 for -8 yards (55-B.Graham). FUMBLES (55-B.Graham) [55-B.Graham], RECOVERED by PHI-91-F.Cox at WAS 20. 91-F.Cox for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.57 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.48 pts |
| Deep post | +1.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.07 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.97 pts |
| QB keep | +0.84 pts |
| Play action | +0.70 pts |
| Quick out | +0.46 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.43 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.42 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.38 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.32 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.80 pts |
| Inside run | -1.21 pts |
| End-around | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Spike it | -1.57 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.