Cardinals vs Commanders — Week 15, 2017
The Cardinals took over trailing 20-15 with 4:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 15, Commanders 20. Commanders won 20-15 — the drive turned it over.
Cardinals ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 25, 4:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 22.8% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 22.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) 7-B.Gabbert scrambles left end ran ob at ARI 35 for 10 yards.
- (4:23) 7-B.Gabbert pass deep right to 11-L.Fitzgerald to WAS 40 for 25 yards (29-K.Fuller).
- (3:49) 35-E.Penny left end to WAS 35 for 5 yards (50-M.Spaight, 26-B.Breeland).
- (3:15) 7-B.Gabbert pass incomplete short left to 14-J.Nelson.
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 7-B.Gabbert sacked at WAS 45 for -10 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at ARI 47. 7-B.Gabbert to ARI 47 for no gain (91-R.Kerrigan).
- (3:10) 2-A.Lee punts 41 yards to WAS 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.04 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.04 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.04 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.77 pts |
| QB keep | +0.70 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.28 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.19 pts |
| Deep post | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Outside run | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.15 pts |
| Receiver pass | -1.32 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -1.47 pts |
| End-around | -1.50 pts |
| Spike it | -2.04 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.