Saints vs Jets — Week 15, 2017
The Saints took over leading 24-19 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 1 timeout in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Saints 31, Jets 19. Saints won 31-19 — the drive scored.
Saints ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 45, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 96.6% for Saints. Our model starts at 93.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) 42-Z.Line right guard to 50 for 5 yards (58-D.Lee).
- (1:43) 22-M.Ingram right tackle for 50 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.16 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.77 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.16 pts |
| Outside run | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.39 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.49 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| Quick out | -0.92 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.95 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.99 pts |
| QB keep | -1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.47 pts |
| Play action | -2.60 pts |
| Curl route | -2.89 pts |
| End-around | -5.00 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.13 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.01 pts |
| Deep post | -8.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.85 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.77 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.