Commanders vs Rams — Week 2, 2017
The Commanders took over leading 27-20 with 1:37 left, 1st & 10 at the Rams 19, 1 timeout in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 27, Rams 20. Commanders won 27-20 — the drive time expired.
Commanders ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At the Rams 19, 1:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.1% for Commanders. Our model starts at 98.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:37) 79-T.Nsekhe reported in as eligible. 32-S.Perine left guard to LA 18 for 1 yard (98-C.Barwin, 23-N.Robey).
- (1:33) 79-T.Nsekhe reported in as eligible. 32-S.Perine up the middle to LA 14 for 4 yards (26-M.Barron).
- (:46) 32-S.Perine up the middle to LA 14 for no gain (20-L.Joyner).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.39 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.39 pts |
| Field goal | +0.10 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.44 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Outside run | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.02 pts |
| Quick out | -1.35 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.36 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.36 pts |
| QB keep | -1.78 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.83 pts |
| Play action | -3.28 pts |
| Curl route | -3.74 pts |
| End-around | -5.73 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.80 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.78 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.73 pts |
| Deep post | -9.76 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.