Commanders vs Saints — Week 11, 2017
The Commanders took over leading 31-23 with 2:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Saints.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 31, Saints 31. Tied 31-31 — the drive turned it over.
Commanders ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 25, 2:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.8% for Commanders. Our model starts at 95.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:53) 32-S.Perine left tackle to WAS 31 for 6 yards (25-R.Bush; 52-C.Robertson).
- (2:46) 32-S.Perine left tackle to WAS 34 for 3 yards (52-C.Robertson; 25-R.Bush).
- (2:38) 68-T.Catalina reported in as eligible. 32-S.Perine right tackle to WAS 33 for -1 yards (51-M.Te'o; 48-V.Bell).
- (2:00) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to NO 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.96 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.21 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.96 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.76 pts |
| Quick out | -1.14 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.18 pts |
| QB keep | -1.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.60 pts |
| Play action | -2.93 pts |
| Curl route | -3.31 pts |
| End-around | -5.30 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.45 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.38 pts |
| Deep post | -9.14 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.21 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.