Titans vs Seahawks — Week 3, 2017
The Titans took over leading 33-27 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at the Seahawks 47, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Titans 33, Seahawks 27. Titans won 33-27 — the drive time expired.
Titans ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 98.1% for Titans. Our model starts at 96.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) 22-D.Henry left tackle to SEA 43 for 4 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (1:44) 22-D.Henry up the middle to SEA 41 for 2 yards (56-C.Avril).
- (:58) 22-D.Henry right tackle to SEA 40 for 1 yard (54-B.Wagner).
- (:11) 8-M.Mariota kneels to SEA 36 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.77 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.77 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| Inside run | -0.69 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.80 pts |
| Quick out | -1.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.18 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.20 pts |
| QB keep | -1.51 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.99 pts |
| Curl route | -3.38 pts |
| End-around | -5.41 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.52 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.45 pts |
| Deep post | -9.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.36 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.