Bears vs Ravens — Week 6, 2017
The Bears took over leading 24-16 with 2:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 17, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Ravens.
What really happened
Final: Bears 24, Ravens 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, up 8 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 17, 2:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 95.6% for Bears. Our model starts at 95.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:52) 24-Jo.Howard left guard to CHI 18 for 1 yard (57-C.Mosley; 48-P.Onwuasor).
- (2:07) 24-Jo.Howard left guard to CHI 26 for 8 yards (99-M.Judon).
- (2:00) 24-Jo.Howard right guard to CHI 24 for -2 yards (42-P.Ricard).
- (1:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to BAL 23, Center-49-A.DePaola. 12-M.Campanaro for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.08 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Outside run | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.70 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.86 pts |
| Quick out | -1.24 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.26 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.26 pts |
| QB keep | -1.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.57 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -2.98 pts |
| Curl route | -3.36 pts |
| End-around | -5.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.47 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.39 pts |
| Deep post | -9.12 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.26 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.19 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.