Raiders vs Giants — Week 13, 2017
The Raiders took over leading 24-17 with 1:37 left, 1st & 10 at the Giants 48, 1 timeout in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 24, Giants 17. Raiders won 24-17 — the drive time expired.
Raiders ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. Near midfield, 1:37 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 99.1% for Raiders. Our model starts at 97.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:37) 33-D.Washington left guard to NYG 42 for 6 yards (47-K.Sheppard; 98-D.Harrison).
- (1:31) 33-D.Washington right guard to NYG 39 for 3 yards (94-D.Tomlinson).
- (1:23) 74-V.Alexander reported in as eligible. 33-D.Washington left tackle to NYG 37 for 2 yards (94-D.Tomlinson; 54-O.Vernon).
- (:37) 4-D.Carr kneels to NYG 38 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-11.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.61 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.90 pts |
| Quick out | -1.25 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.26 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.27 pts |
| QB keep | -1.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.68 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.73 pts |
| Play action | -3.13 pts |
| Curl route | -3.55 pts |
| End-around | -5.56 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.60 pts |
| Deep post | -9.47 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.54 pts |
| Flea flicker | -11.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.