Falcons vs Jets — Week 8, 2017
The Falcons took over leading 25-20 with 3:36 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 25, Jets 20. Falcons won 25-20 — the drive turned it over.
Falcons ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 84.2% for Falcons. Our model starts at 86.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman up the middle to ATL 28 for 3 yards (96-M.Wilkerson).
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman left end to ATL 30 for 2 yards (58-D.Lee; 95-J.Martin).
- (3:26) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 12-M.Sanu to ATL 45 for 15 yards (30-R.Nelson).
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman left tackle to ATL 46 for 1 yard (99-S.McLendon).
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman right tackle to ATL 47 for 1 yard (99-S.McLendon; 92-L.Williams).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 26-T.Coleman right tackle to NYJ 46 for 7 yards (33-Ja.Adams).
- (1:16) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 42 yards to NYJ 4, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.75 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.66 pts |
| Outside run | +0.03 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.15 pts |
| Inside run | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Quick out | -0.65 pts |
| QB keep | -0.66 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.71 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.79 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.82 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Play action | -2.07 pts |
| Curl route | -2.18 pts |
| End-around | -4.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.54 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.31 pts |
| Deep post | -7.57 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.75 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.