Vikings vs Falcons — Week 13, 2017
The Vikings took over leading 14-9 with 4:58 left, 1st & 10 at their own 35, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 14, Falcons 9. Vikings won 14-9 — the drive time expired.
Vikings ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 35, 4:58 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 85.0% for Vikings. Our model starts at 85.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:58) 7-C.Keenum pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph to ATL 49 for 16 yards (22-K.Neal).
- (4:10) 25-L.Murray right guard to ATL 46 for 3 yards (59-D.Campbell; 79-A.Rubin).
- (4:05) 21-J.McKinnon left end to ATL 43 for 3 yards (23-R.Alford).
- (3:59) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short right to 19-A.Thielen to ATL 21 for 22 yards (37-R.Allen).
- (3:10) 25-L.Murray left tackle to ATL 13 for 8 yards (22-K.Neal).
- (2:30) 25-L.Murray right end to ATL 10 for 3 yards (92-D.Poe; 27-D.Kazee).
- (2:00) 7-C.Keenum kneels to ATL 11 for -1 yards.
- (1:18) 7-C.Keenum kneels to ATL 12 for -1 yards.
- (:34) 7-C.Keenum kneels to ATL 13 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.60 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.60 pts |
| Outside run | -0.11 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.53 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Quick out | -0.79 pts |
| QB keep | -0.81 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.85 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| Play action | -2.22 pts |
| Curl route | -2.35 pts |
| End-around | -4.43 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.41 pts |
| Deep post | -7.64 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.