Packers vs Bengals — Week 3, 2017
The Packers took over trailing 24-17 with 3:46 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Packers 24, Bengals 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:46 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.5% for Packers. Our model starts at 12.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:46) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 81-G.Allison pushed ob at GB 42 for 17 yards (21-D.Dennard) [97-G.Atkins].
- (3:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 88-T.Montgomery to GB 43 for 1 yard (21-D.Dennard).
- (3:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short middle to 81-G.Allison.
- (3:01) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 81-G.Allison to CIN 46 for 11 yards (21-D.Dennard).
- (2:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 81-G.Allison to CIN 43 for 3 yards (21-D.Dennard).
- (2:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson pushed ob at CIN 33 for 10 yards (27-D.Kirkpatrick).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 88-T.Montgomery to CIN 28 for 5 yards (59-N.Vigil; 21-D.Dennard).
- (1:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 80-M.Bennett to CIN 22 for 6 yards (59-N.Vigil).
- (1:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams to CIN 13 for 9 yards (24-A.Jones). CIN-36-S.Williams was injured during the play.
- (:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 88-T.Montgomery.
- (:54) 88-T.Montgomery left tackle to CIN 7 for 6 yards (90-M.Johnson).
- (:21) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-J.Nelson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.88 pts |
| Deep post | +0.64 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.61 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.58 pts |
| QB keep | +0.48 pts |
| Play action | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.09 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.34 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Flea flicker | -0.52 pts |
| Receiver pass | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| End-around | -1.07 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Spike it | -1.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.