Jaguars vs Seahawks — Week 14, 2017
The Jaguars took over leading 30-24 with 3:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 1 timeout in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 30, Seahawks 24. Jaguars won 30-24 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 25, 3:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.3% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 88.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:42) 27-L.Fournette up the middle to JAX 27 for 2 yards (30-B.McDougald; 55-F.Clark).
- (3:36) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 12-D.Westbrook (41-B.Maxwell).
- (3:31) (Shotgun) 24-T.Yeldon right end to JAX 25 for 3 yards (93-B.Jackson).
- (2:48) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to SEA 37, Center-49-C.Holba. 16-T.Lockett ran ob at SEA 42 for 5 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.59 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.59 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Inside run | -0.44 pts |
| Quick out | -0.80 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.85 pts |
| QB keep | -0.89 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.03 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.35 pts |
| Play action | -2.33 pts |
| Curl route | -2.52 pts |
| End-around | -4.61 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.63 pts |
| Deep post | -8.05 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.34 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.19 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.