Bills vs Chiefs — Week 12, 2017
The Bills took over leading 16-10 with 2:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 46, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Bills 16, Chiefs 10. Bills won 16-10 — the drive turned it over.
Bills ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Near midfield, 2:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.0% for Bills. Our model starts at 94.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:49) 25-L.McCoy left tackle to BUF 46 for no gain (96-B.Logan; 97-A.Bailey).
- (2:45) 25-L.McCoy left end to BUF 45 for -1 yards (51-F.Zombo; 57-K.Pierre-Louis).
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor left tackle to BUF 44 for -1 yards (51-F.Zombo).
- (2:35) 6-C.Schmidt punts 42 yards to KC 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.10 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.98 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.10 pts |
| Outside run | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.39 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.64 pts |
| Quick out | -1.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| QB keep | -1.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.38 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Play action | -2.77 pts |
| Curl route | -3.11 pts |
| End-around | -5.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.19 pts |
| Deep post | -8.89 pts |
| Receiver pass | -9.05 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.98 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.