Cowboys vs Commanders — Week 8, 2017
The Cowboys took over leading 26-19 with 4:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 14, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 33, Commanders 19. Cowboys won 33-19 — the drive turned it over.
Cowboys ball, up 7 — a score ends it. Protect the lead. At their own 14, 4:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 90.8% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 90.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) 21-E.Elliott right end to DAL 21 for 7 yards (97-T.McClain, 35-M.Nicholson).
- (3:47) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to DAL 25 for 4 yards (53-Z.Brown).
- (3:04) 21-E.Elliott left tackle to DAL 28 for 3 yards (72-A.Lanier).
- (2:23) 21-E.Elliott left guard to DAL 31 for 3 yards (53-Z.Brown).
- (2:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-D.Bryant to DAL 36 for 5 yards (47-Q.Dunbar).
- (2:00) 21-E.Elliott right end to DAL 39 for 3 yards (51-W.Compton).
- (1:55) 21-E.Elliott right guard to DAL 43 for 4 yards (97-T.McClain).
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left guard to DAL 45 for 2 yards (53-Z.Brown).
- (1:05) 6-C.Jones punts 42 yards to WAS 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur. 80-J.Crowder MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 13. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 12 for -1 yards (35-K.Frazier, 31-B.Jones).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.48 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.64 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.81 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.95 pts |
| Quick out | -1.38 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.41 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.42 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.57 pts |
| QB keep | -1.59 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.76 pts |
| Play action | -2.89 pts |
| Curl route | -3.17 pts |
| End-around | -5.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.27 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.12 pts |
| Deep post | -8.56 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.84 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.64 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.