Chiefs vs Raiders — Week 7, 2017
The Chiefs took over leading 30-24 with 4:15 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 30, Raiders 31. Raiders won 31-30 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 34, 4:15 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.0% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 89.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:15) 27-K.Hunt left guard to KC 34 for no gain (96-D.Autry).
- (3:30) 27-K.Hunt up the middle to KC 40 for 6 yards (27-R.Nelson, 42-K.Joseph).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith sacked at KC 29 for -11 yards (sack split by 52-K.Mack and 96-D.Autry).
- (2:38) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to LV 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 30-J.Richard to LV 15 for no gain (51-F.Zombo).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.19 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.46 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Inside run | -0.52 pts |
| Quick out | -0.90 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.95 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.00 pts |
| QB keep | -1.04 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.43 pts |
| Play action | -2.48 pts |
| Curl route | -2.71 pts |
| End-around | -4.75 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.80 pts |
| Deep post | -8.26 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.52 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.