Patriots vs Buccaneers — Week 5, 2017
The Patriots took over leading 16-14 with 2:08 left, 1st & 10 at the Buccaneers 37, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 19, Buccaneers 14. Patriots won 19-14 — the drive scored.
Patriots ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. In Buccaneers territory, 2:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.1% for Patriots. Our model starts at 86.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:08) 35-M.Gillislee left tackle to TB 35 for 2 yards (51-K.Beckwith, 90-C.Baker).
- (2:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short left to 28-J.White.
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 15-C.Hogan to TB 30 for 5 yards (53-A.Glanton).
- (1:14) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.38 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.62 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.38 pts |
| Outside run | +0.06 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.41 pts |
| QB keep | -0.47 pts |
| Quick out | -0.49 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.59 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.65 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.30 pts |
| Play action | -1.87 pts |
| Curl route | -1.92 pts |
| End-around | -4.33 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.35 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.12 pts |
| Field goal | -5.90 pts |
| Deep post | -7.37 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.82 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.62 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.