Commanders vs 49ers — Week 6, 2017
The Commanders took over leading 26-24 with 1:57 left, 1st & 10 at the 49ers 46, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 26, 49ers 24. Commanders won 26-24 — the drive turned it over.
Commanders ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. Near midfield, 1:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 91.7% for Commanders. Our model starts at 85.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:57) 32-S.Perine right end to SF 45 for 1 yard (94-S.Thomas).
- (1:53) 32-S.Perine left end to SF 42 for 3 yards (94-S.Thomas, 29-J.Tartt).
- (1:47) 32-S.Perine left guard to SF 40 for 2 yards (96-X.Cooper; 57-E.Harold).
- (1:00) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.35 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.29 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.35 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.22 pts |
| Outside run | +0.13 pts |
| QB keep | -0.28 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Quick out | -0.37 pts |
| Inside run | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.44 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
| Curl route | -1.65 pts |
| Play action | -1.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.13 pts |
| End-around | -4.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.87 pts |
| Deep post | -7.01 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.54 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.29 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.