Colts vs Bengals — Week 8, 2017
The Colts took over trailing 24-23 with 2:42 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Colts 23, Bengals 24. Bengals won 24-23 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Colts ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 24, 2:42 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.9% for Colts. Our model starts at 45.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:42) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep middle to 84-J.Doyle to IND 43 for 19 yards (43-G.Iloka). Cincinnati challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep middle to 84-J.Doyle (43-G.Iloka).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 84-J.Doyle pushed ob at IND 32 for 8 yards (26-J.Shaw).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 84-J.Doyle to IND 46 for 14 yards (21-D.Dennard).
- (2:09) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack right guard to 50 for 4 yards (55-V.Burfict).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett sacked at IND 43 for -7 yards (58-C.Lawson).
- (1:30) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short middle to 25-M.Mack to CIN 48 for 9 yards (21-D.Dennard).
- (1:22) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 13-T.Hilton [94-C.Smith].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.55 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.55 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.41 pts |
| QB keep | +1.37 pts |
| Quick out | +0.70 pts |
| Play action | +0.65 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.56 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.22 pts |
| Outside run | -0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.61 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -0.96 pts |
| Deep post | -0.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| End-around | -2.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -2.78 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.