Chiefs vs Giants — Week 11, 2017
The Chiefs took over tied at 6 with 4:08 left, 1st & 10 at their own 5, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 9, Giants 9. Tied 9-9 — the drive turnover.
Chiefs ball, even score — any score wins it. Backed up at their own 5, 4:08 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.0% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 53.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:08) 27-K.Hunt left tackle to KC 8 for 3 yards (37-R.Cockrell, 98-D.Harrison). NYG-98-D.Harrison was injured during the play.
- (3:38) 27-K.Hunt right tackle to KC 18 for 10 yards (27-D.Thompson, 21-L.Collins).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 27-K.Hunt right guard to KC 18 for no gain (90-J.Pierre-Paul).
- (2:18) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle intended for 14-D.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 20-J.Jenkins at KC 40. 20-J.Jenkins pushed ob at KC 23 for 17 yards (27-K.Hunt).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.61 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.83 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.63 pts |
| Outside run | -1.70 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.77 pts |
| Quick out | -1.82 pts |
| QB keep | -1.82 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.88 pts |
| Inside run | -1.88 pts |
| Screen pass | -2.01 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.47 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Curl route | -3.01 pts |
| Play action | -3.13 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.11 pts |
| End-around | -4.41 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.54 pts |
| Deep post | -4.71 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.40 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.83 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.