Vikings vs Panthers — Week 14, 2017
The Vikings took over trailing 24-21 with 4:36 left, 1st & Goal at the Panthers 6, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 24, Panthers 31. Panthers won 31-24 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At the Panthers 6, 4:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 61.4% for Vikings. Our model starts at 62.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:36) 25-L.Murray up the middle to CAR 6 for no gain (59-L.Kuechly; 98-S.Lotulelei).
- (3:55) 7-C.Keenum pass incomplete short right to 14-S.Diggs (24-J.Bradberry).
- (3:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum sacked at CAR 9 for -3 yards (99-K.Short).
- (3:11) 2-K.Forbath 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+12.95 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.25 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +12.95 pts |
| Outside run | -0.07 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.26 pts |
| QB keep | -0.35 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| Quick out | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.59 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.76 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.15 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.31 pts |
| Play action | -2.09 pts |
| Curl route | -2.21 pts |
| Spike it | -2.74 pts |
| End-around | -3.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.36 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.63 pts |
| Deep post | -6.88 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.25 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.