Dolphins vs Jets — Week 7, 2017
The Dolphins took over tied at 28 with 4:03 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Dolphins 31, Jets 28. Dolphins won 31-28 — the drive turned it over.
Dolphins ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 4:03 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.9% for Dolphins. Our model starts at 54.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:03) 23-J.Ajayi left tackle to MIA 25 for no gain (96-M.Wilkerson).
- (3:27) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short right to 10-K.Stills to MIA 29 for 4 yards (21-M.Claiborne).
- (2:43) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short right to 14-J.Landry to MIA 37 for 8 yards (56-D.Davis).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass short middle to 80-A.Fasano to NYJ 41 for 22 yards (26-M.Maye).
- (1:16) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore sacked at 50 for -9 yards (56-D.Davis).
- (1:07) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass incomplete short left to 23-J.Ajayi [92-L.Williams].
- (1:02) (Shotgun) 8-M.Moore pass incomplete short left to 26-D.Williams (94-K.Ealy).
- (:58) (Punt formation) 16-M.Haack punts 35 yards to NYJ 15, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-92-J.Denney.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.99 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.19 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.99 pts |
| QB keep | +0.80 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.67 pts |
| Curl route | +0.46 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.25 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.12 pts |
| Outside run | +0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.15 pts |
| Play action | -0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Inside run | -0.81 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.93 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.27 pts |
| End-around | -2.58 pts |
| Deep post | -2.86 pts |
| Spike it | -2.94 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.19 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.19 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.