Saints vs Buccaneers — Week 17, 2017
The Saints took over leading 24-23 with 4:31 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Saints 24, Buccaneers 31. Buccaneers won 31-24 — the drive turned it over.
Saints ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 25, 4:31 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 65.5% for Saints. Our model starts at 62.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:31) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short left to 19-T.Ginn (29-R.Smith).
- (4:25) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to NO 34 for 9 yards (24-B.Grimes).
- (4:03) 22-M.Ingram right guard to NO 37 for 3 yards (49-R.Bullough).
- (3:20) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 22-M.Ingram up the middle to NO 37 for no gain (92-W.Gholston, 54-L.David).
- (3:15) 9-D.Brees pass deep left to 19-T.Ginn to TB 40 for 23 yards (29-R.Smith).
- (3:05) 22-M.Ingram right tackle to TB 40 for no gain (96-S.Siliga).
- (2:59) 41-A.Kamara left end pushed ob at TB 40 for no gain (58-K.Alexander).
- (2:54) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees sacked at TB 47 for -7 yards (98-C.McDonald).
- (2:07) (Punt formation) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to TB 5, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-34-J.Hardee.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.90 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.44 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.90 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.65 pts |
| QB keep | +0.40 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.22 pts |
| Outside run | +0.06 pts |
| Quick out | -0.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.15 pts |
| Curl route | -0.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.64 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Play action | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.69 pts |
| End-around | -3.03 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.14 pts |
| Deep post | -4.16 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.22 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.44 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.