Steelers vs Packers — Week 12, 2017
The Steelers took over tied at 28 with 2:02 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 31, Packers 28. Steelers won 31-28 — the drive turned it over.
Steelers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 2:02 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 65.3% for Steelers. Our model starts at 58.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 17-E.Rogers to PIT 31 for 6 yards (42-M.Burnett).
- (1:58) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 84-A.Brown to PIT 44 for 13 yards (21-H.Clinton-Dix). Penalty on GB-50-B.Martinez, Defensive Holding, declined.
- (1:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 26-L.Bell pushed ob at GB 46 for 10 yards (28-J.Hawkins).
- (1:43) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 10-M.Bryant. Coverage by 20-King.
- (1:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short right to 84-A.Brown. Coverage 28-Hawkins
- (1:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep left to 17-E.Rogers (23-D.Randall) [53-N.Perry].
- (1:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 28 yards to GB 18, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.54 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.99 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.54 pts |
| QB keep | +1.30 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.27 pts |
| Curl route | +1.14 pts |
| Quick out | +0.66 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.52 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Outside run | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.19 pts |
| Take a knee | -0.18 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Inside run | -0.77 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.50 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.86 pts |
| Deep post | -2.39 pts |
| End-around | -2.53 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.97 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.99 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.