Colts vs Cardinals — Week 2, 2017
The Colts took over tied at 13 with 3:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cardinals.
What really happened
Final: Colts 13, Cardinals 13. Tied 13-13 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 25, 3:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 57.0% for Colts. Our model starts at 56.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:25) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 13-T.Hilton to IND 41 for 16 yards (21-P.Peterson).
- (2:54) (Run formation) 23-F.Gore left end to IND 43 for 2 yards (27-T.Branch).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right.
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 17-K.Aiken [41-A.Bethea].
- (2:04) 2-R.Sanchez punts 42 yards to ARI 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 33-K.Williams.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.15 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.26 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.15 pts |
| QB keep | +0.93 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.84 pts |
| Curl route | +0.62 pts |
| Quick out | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.23 pts |
| Outside run | +0.11 pts |
| Play action | -0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.86 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.22 pts |
| End-around | -2.61 pts |
| Deep post | -2.82 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.23 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.26 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.