Vikings vs Bears — Week 5, 2017
The Vikings took over tied at 17 with 2:20 left, 1st & 10 at the Bears 28, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 20, Bears 17. Vikings won 20-17 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, even score — any score wins it. In Bears territory, 2:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 68.8% for Vikings. Our model starts at 77.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:20) 21-J.McKinnon right guard to CHI 32 for -4 yards (96-A.Hicks).
- (2:16) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short right to 21-J.McKinnon to CHI 22 for 10 yards (23-K.Fuller) [94-L.Floyd].
- (1:53) 21-J.McKinnon left guard to CHI 14 for 3 yards (92-P.McPhee).
- (1:09) 21-J.McKinnon left tackle to CHI 9 for 5 yards (91-E.Goldman).
- (1:03) 21-J.McKinnon left tackle to CHI 8 for 1 yard (58-J.Anderson).
- (:16) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.06 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.21 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.69 pts |
| Outside run | +0.30 pts |
| QB keep | +0.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.15 pts |
| Quick out | -0.00 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.10 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| Inside run | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.45 pts |
| Curl route | -0.75 pts |
| Play action | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.21 pts |
| Spike it | -2.07 pts |
| Field goal | -2.69 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.35 pts |
| End-around | -3.58 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.97 pts |
| Deep post | -6.06 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.48 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.06 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.