49ers vs Rams — Week 3, 2017
The 49ers took over trailing 41-39 with 2:10 left, 1st & 10 at midfield, 1 timeout in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: 49ers 39, Rams 41. Rams won 41-39 — the drive turned it over on downs.
49ers ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. Near midfield, 2:10 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.7% for 49ers. Our model starts at 49.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:10) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete short left to 11-M.Goodwin.
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short right to 28-C.Hyde to 50 for no gain (26-M.Barron, 92-T.Smart). Caught at SF 45. 5-yds YAC
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete deep left to 15-P.Garcon.
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at SF 32 for -8 yards (99-A.Donald).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.72 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-3.78 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.72 pts |
| Curl route | +1.68 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.57 pts |
| QB keep | +1.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.81 pts |
| Play action | +0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.66 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.30 pts |
| Outside run | +0.01 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.83 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.09 pts |
| Deep post | -1.15 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| End-around | -2.22 pts |
| Spike it | -3.00 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.02 pts |
| Flea flicker | -3.78 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.