Buccaneers vs Lions — Week 14, 2017
The Buccaneers took over tied at 21 with 4:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 21, Lions 24. Lions won 24-21 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 15, 4:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.1% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 53.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:49) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short middle to 84-C.Brate to TB 21 for 11 yards (27-G.Quin, 40-J.Davis).
- (4:20) (Shotgun) 34-C.Sims III up the middle to TB 32 for 11 yards (27-G.Quin).
- (3:53) 34-C.Sims III up the middle to TB 32 for no gain (97-A.Spence).
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right.
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass incomplete short right to 34-C.Sims III (90-C.Washington).
- (3:06) (Punt formation) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to DET 24, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 13-T.Jones to DET 23 for -1 yards (12-C.Godwin).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.66 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.44 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.53 pts |
| QB keep | -0.75 pts |
| Curl route | -0.89 pts |
| Quick out | -1.11 pts |
| Outside run | -1.16 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.19 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.22 pts |
| Play action | -1.36 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.59 pts |
| Inside run | -1.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.78 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.15 pts |
| End-around | -3.61 pts |
| Deep post | -3.65 pts |
| Receiver pass | -4.98 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.