Buccaneers vs Packers — Week 13, 2017
The Buccaneers took over tied at 20 with 1:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 20, Packers 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 20, 1:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 54.5% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 55.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:46) 34-C.Sims III right guard to TB 13 for 3 yards (53-N.Perry; 76-M.Daniels).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston sacked at TB 10 for -3 yards (sack split by 97-K.Clark and 52-C.Matthews).
- (1:00) (Shotgun) 34-C.Sims III right guard to TB 18 for 8 yards (52-C.Matthews).
- (:54) 9-B.Anger punts 46 yards to GB 36, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 11-T.Davis to GB 38 for 2 yards (16-F.Martino, 32-J.Rodgers).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-4.58 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.63 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.41 pts |
| QB keep | +1.40 pts |
| Curl route | +1.36 pts |
| Quick out | +0.73 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.59 pts |
| Play action | +0.51 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.25 pts |
| Outside run | +0.16 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.14 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Inside run | -0.83 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.25 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.58 pts |
| Deep post | -1.95 pts |
| End-around | -2.41 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Receiver pass | -3.64 pts |
| Flea flicker | -4.58 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.