Bears vs Steelers — Week 3, 2017
The Bears took over tied at 17 with 3:26 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Bears 17, Steelers 17. Tied 17-17 — the drive turned it over.
Bears ball, even score — any score wins it. Backed up at their own 9, 3:26 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 53.2% for Bears. Our model starts at 53.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:26) 24-Jo.Howard left tackle to CHI 10 for 1 yard (97-C.Heyward).
- (2:51) 8-M.Glennon pass short middle to 24-Jo.Howard to CHI 14 for 4 yards (50-R.Shazier).
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short left to 30-B.Cunningham pushed ob at CHI 25 for 11 yards (22-W.Gay).
- (2:33) 8-M.Glennon pass short middle to 29-T.Cohen to CHI 34 for 9 yards (93-D.McCullers).
- (2:00) 29-T.Cohen right guard to CHI 38 for 4 yards (50-R.Shazier). FUMBLES (50-R.Shazier), recovered by CHI-70-B.Massie at CHI 39. 70-B.Massie to CHI 39 for no gain (27-J.Wilcox).
- (1:23) 8-M.Glennon pass incomplete short right to 14-D.Thompson (23-M.Mitchell).
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon Aborted. 65-C.Whitehair FUMBLES at CHI 35, recovered by CHI-8-M.Glennon at CHI 27. 8-M.Glennon pass incomplete short right.
- (1:11) (Shotgun) 8-M.Glennon pass short right to 30-B.Cunningham to CHI 47 for 8 yards (23-M.Mitchell).
- (1:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to PIT 15, Center-49-A.DePaola, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.23 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.51 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.64 pts |
| Outside run | -1.73 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.78 pts |
| Quick out | -1.82 pts |
| QB keep | -1.83 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.88 pts |
| Inside run | -1.91 pts |
| Curl route | -1.95 pts |
| Screen pass | -2.01 pts |
| Play action | -2.42 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.49 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.36 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.76 pts |
| Deep post | -3.87 pts |
| End-around | -4.41 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.64 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.