Bengals vs Steelers — Week 13, 2017
The Bengals took over tied at 20 with 3:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 20, Steelers 23. Steelers won 23-20 — the drive turned it over.
Bengals ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 12, 3:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 53.0% for Bengals. Our model starts at 52.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:44) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep middle to 18-A.Green.
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard up the middle to CIN 20 for 8 yards (98-V.Williams).
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CIN 17 for -3 yards (48-B.Dupree).
- (2:48) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to PIT 41, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 17-E.Rogers.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.57 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-5.80 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.57 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.89 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.08 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.23 pts |
| Curl route | -1.25 pts |
| QB keep | -1.51 pts |
| Outside run | -1.71 pts |
| Play action | -1.76 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.78 pts |
| Quick out | -1.81 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.87 pts |
| Inside run | -1.89 pts |
| Screen pass | -2.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.47 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.93 pts |
| Spike it | -2.96 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.30 pts |
| Deep post | -3.54 pts |
| End-around | -4.16 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.17 pts |
| Flea flicker | -5.80 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.